Port arrivals are down nearly 15% this season and farmers and industry sources told Reuters they expect little improvement when next season opens at the start of October, as rainfall has fallen short of expectations since June.

Ivory Coast typically produces around 40% of its total annual output in the first three months of the season and harvested 859,821 tonnes of beans from October through December of last year. "We think we will reach 660,000 to 710,000 tonnes (this year)," said the director of a European export company in the commercial capital of Abidjan, who asked not to be named.

Three other exporters contacted by Reuters gave October to December production forecasts ranging from 140,000 to 180,000 tonne slower than the current season. "I admit this is pretty worrying because up to now we were telling ourselves that, even if production wasn't going to be good, it would at least be at the 2015/16 level," said another international exporter. "We didn't expect it to be even lower."

Growers say that the poor rainfall has increased mortality rates, resulting in fewer pods on trees than usually seen at this point in the season. A Reuter’s reporter visiting plantations in the western cocoa heartland noted a general lack of flowers, which typically take around 22 weeks to mature into cocoa pods ripe for harvesting.

"Production will not be good," said Felix Konan, who grows five hectares of cocoa near the southern port city of San Pedro. “Usually in September we are already able to make a first cut...but this year we have nothing in the fields to harvest."

Farmers and merchants in the Duekoue, Soubre, Sassandra and Meagui, considered Ivory Coast's most productive growing regions, gave Reuters a similar assessment of the upcoming harvest. "We'd hoped to have a good harvest but the reality of it is there. We're going to have more bad production," said Didier Zapka, a farmer in Soubre.

Early season output is typically boosted by cocoa held back by merchants in anticipation of a higher government-guaranteed price. Exporters also generally have beans warehoused at the ports of San Pedro and Abidjan at the end of each season. However poor production in recent months has meant there is little late-season cocoa available for stocking, another factor likely to deflate arrivals and fuel competition among exporters as the 2016/17 season opens.

"The start of the season is going to be difficult because there won't be enough cocoa for everyone. But we are preparing ourselves to fight for every single bean," said Ali Lakiss, chief executive of San Pedro-based exporter SAF CACAO.

--reuters--