Angola's jets pounded Rwandan and Ugandan positions inside Congo and its troops patrolled the streets of the capital, Kinshasa, fearing the installation of a hostile government sympathetic to its own separatists.
This week, Laurent Kabila's son, Joseph, another Congolese president facing upheaval at home, heads to Luanda in search of a helping hand.
Heads of state at Wednesday's Congo-focused regional summit, many of whom has extended their own mandates at home, is likely to back a deal Kabila recently struck with part of the opposition to allow him to stay in power until at least April 2018, beyond his mandate which ends in December.
But analysts say this time Kabila cannot count on unalloyed support from Angola and other allies, especially if its leaders start to see Kabila as the problem, rather than the solution to difficulties in the central African giant.
"Angola prefers a Congo that is weak but stable," said Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group at New York University.
"If the country becomes seriously unstable, Angola might begin to make its criticism of Kabila more public." The main opposition bloc has denounced this month's accord as a pretext to allow Kabila to cling to power and manoeuvre to change the constitution - charges the government denies.
More than 50 people were killed last month in demonstrations against the extension of Kabila's term which the government blames on the logistical problems of organising a November election and opposition leaders have vowed to give him a "red card" on December 19, the last day of his term.
The goal of Kabila's trip to Luanda is to win support for the deal, under which a power sharing government is to be named, his top diplomatic adviser, Barnabe Kikaya bin Karubi, said.
The government hopes regional recognition of the accord can help stem growing pressure from the United States and Europe on Kabila to stand down.
Even with that vote of confidence, further turmoil would damage Kabila's image as a guarantor of stability, one diplomat said. The United Nations fears large-scale violence could become “all but inevitable".
With direct Rwandan or Ugandan intervention in Congo now considered unlikely, Angola's main fear is an influx of refugees across its 2,600-km (1,600 mile) border if the political situation gets out of hand.
"I don't think they will want to see one person stay on if that leads to instability," the diplomat said of Angola.
Millions died in the 1998-2003 war that sucked in more than a half-dozen armies, including Zimbabwe and Namibia, which backed Laurent Kabila and then Joseph after his father's murder in 2001.
Since then, a series of foreign-backed insurrections has caused havoc in the east but without threatening Kabila’s overall authority.
Kikaya said Kinshasa was not worried about weakening support from its allies but recent visits to Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania suggest Kabila is working hard to shore up regional support.
"He still sees regional alliances as essential in his strategy to extend his time in office but also possibly to secure personal guarantees in case he is forced out of power, "said Vincent Rouget, Congo analyst at Control Risks.
--reuters--
