The Paris-based energy security watchdog also predicted in its annual outlook that the world will likely fail to meet its goal to cap the rise in temperatures to as close as possible to1.5 degrees (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change. The IEA has been under pressure from the US for a shift in recent years toward a focus on clean energy policies as President Donald Trump called on American companies to expand oil and gas production. During the Biden administration, it predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade and said there should be an end to investment in new oil, gas and coal projects if the world wanted to reach net zero emissions by mid-century.

Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called its demand peak projections ‘nonsensical’. The IEA is funded by member countries, with the US the largest contributor. In its World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption.

It predicted that global energy demand will climb by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from present levels. The scenario, which the IEA first used in 2019 before switching to one more in line with a clean energy transition, is based on existing government policies and not aspirations to achieve climate goals. IEA Head, Fatih Birol said on a press call the scenario was restored to reflect differing choices governments are making about energy. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has previously disputed peak oil demand forecasts.

–Reuters–