The rebasing, the first in 15 years, was adopted in December 2024 as a new reference point for the consumer price index. According to officials, using the rebased index without adjustment risks overstating price pressures in December figures, potentially distorting the true picture of inflation trends in the economy.
However, some economists have raised concerns about the timing and intent of the proposed changes, warning that frequent methodological adjustments could undermine confidence in official data.
Speaking to Channel Africa on Wednesday, Shuaibu Idris, Managing Director at Time-Line Consult Limited, said the move risks fuelling perceptions that authorities are more focused on managing statistics than reflecting the lived economic reality of Nigerians.
Idris argued that recent inflation reporting had already created confusion, noting that earlier data suggested inflation was easing, while underlying market conditions continued to deteriorate. He warned that revising the methodology just as inflation is expected to climb above 30% on a month-on-month basis could deepen scepticism among analysts, investors and the public.
“There is a concern that statistics are being adjusted to present a more favourable picture, even when the underlying economic environment does not support it,” he said, adding that credibility and transparency are critical for data produced by a national statistics agency.
The planned revision also has implications for monetary policy. Nigeria’s Central Bank relies heavily on inflation data from the NBS when making decisions on interest rates, exchange rate policy and other monetary tools through its Monetary Policy Committee.
Idris cautioned that if inflation figures are perceived to be manipulated or insufficiently robust, policy decisions based on them may be misaligned with economic realities. This could weaken the effectiveness of monetary tightening or easing measures.
He noted, however, that the existence of independent private-sector data providers, including financial research firms and economic consultancies, offers some counterbalance. These organisations compile their own inflation and market indicators, which investors increasingly use alongside official data.
–ChannelAfrica–
