The utility has entered 2026 with a structurally stronger system than at any point in the past five years, with 4 400MW more capacity available than this time last year. The improved stability is attributed to major gains in Eskom’s generation fleet and the continued success of its Generation Recovery Plan.
The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has continued its steady upward trend, reaching 64.66% year‑to‑date. Eskom’s fleet has achieved or exceeded the 70% EAF mark on 55 occasions, underscoring a sustained recovery. Between January 9 and 15, 2026, average unplanned outages dropped sharply to 8 252MW, down from 14 783MW recorded over the same period last year, an improvement of 6 531MW. The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) decreased to 17.19%, significantly better than 30.93% a year ago.
Planned maintenance, reflected in the Planned Capacity Loss Factor, averaged 13.89% over the same period. Eskom says this increase is consistent with its maintenance strategy to boost long‑term reliability, building on an intensive programme that has exceeded historical norms over the past three years. Declining unplanned outages indicate that these efforts are yielding results.
Improved EAF has also reduced reliance on costly diesel generation. For the fourth consecutive week, Eskom used no diesel, lowering expenditure by $210 billion compared to last year. Year‑to‑date diesel spending is well below budget, aided by excess capacity and reduced holiday-season demand, with 5 368MW currently in cold reserve.
SA has now recorded 245 consecutive days without an interrupted electricity supply. Only 26 hours of loadshedding occurred during April and May 2025.
To maintain stability, Eskom expects to bring 2 070MW online ahead of the evening peak on 19 January 2026. Demand is forecast at 22 860MW, against available capacity of 28 703MW, a healthy margin.
Eskom’s Summer Outlook, published on September 5, 2025, projected no loadshedding between September 2025 and March 2026 due to sustained fleet improvements.
The year‑to‑date UCLF stands at 23.52%, down from 25.26% last year. Planned maintenance averaged 5 362MW (11.4% of capacity), lower than 12.37% recorded last year.
From April 1, 2025 to January 15, 2026, Eskom generated 1 049.38GWh through Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), costing $380 million, less than the 1 568.73GWh and $590 million spent last year.
The OCGT load factor dropped to 4.42%, below last year’s 6.60%.
Despite system stability, illegal connections and meter tampering continue to damage infrastructure, requiring temporary load reduction in high‑risk areas. Eskom aims to eliminate load reduction by 2027 through a phased programme targeting 971 feeders and benefiting around 1.69 million customers. Measures include smart meters, integration of distributed energy resources, and expanding Free Basic Electricity.
Eskom has installed 83 704 smart meters, over 90% in Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu‑Natal. The utility aims to install 577 347 meters by March 2026, reaching full completion in 2027. Eighty‑four feeders have been removed from load reduction so far, 31% of the March 2026 target of 271. This includes:
- 13 in Limpopo and Mpumalanga
- 37 in Gauteng
- 8 in the Eastern and Western Cape
- 26 in the Free State and KwaZulu‑Natal
An estimated 107 927 customers are now free from load reduction. Remaining customers still to be removed total 507 998, representing 87.98% of the target to be cleared by March 2026.
–ChannelAfrica–
