This is a figure that surpasses the Finance Ministry’s earlier forecast of 8.9% issued in June 2025. Abiy said the improved outlook is based on economic performance recorded over the past six months.
Speaking to Channel Africa on Tuesday, Innocent Semosa, Dr Costantinos Berhutesfa, former United Nations (UN) Senior Economic Policy Advisor, Chairperson of the African Union Anti‑Corruption Board, and Professor of Public Policy and Sustainable Institutional Reforms, said Ethiopia’s economic trajectory remains complex, but notable gains are emerging despite persistent challenges.
“Well, the Ethiopian economy has a lot of challenges,” he said. “We have internal conflict, illicit financial flows and illicit trade. But despite that, the country has been showing remarkable progress.”
He noted that while the IMF and other institutions have issued lower projections, recent surges in sectors such as tourism, natural gas and mining have bolstered government confidence in achieving double‑digit growth.
Costantinos highlighted a combination of industries underpinning the government’s optimistic forecast.
He pointed to:
- Mechanised agriculture, which is expanding productivity
- Gold and mineral mining, which continues to generate foreign‑exchange earnings
- New natural gas investments, particularly in Ethiopia’s Somali region
- Commodity exports, which he said have nearly doubled over a six‑month period
He added that Ethiopia’s growing industrial capacity, including 20 industrial parks supporting value‑added exports, as well as the introduction of capital markets and the return of foreign banks for the first time in half a century, have strengthened the economic outlook.
“All this gives the government some kind of inkling that the economy will grow at a double‑digit rate,” he said.
Asked about the importance of mega projects in sustaining growth, Dr Costantinos said large‑scale infrastructure remains central to Ethiopia’s development model.
He cited:
- The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), whose fourth turbine has been completed, pushing capacity beyond 5 000 MW
- The Koysha Dam, producing over 2 000 MW
- Recent expansions in wind energy
- A joint Dangote–Ethiopian Investment Holding fertiliser plant, expected to significantly reduce costly fertiliser imports
- Planned natural gas production, which could curb dependence on liquefied natural gas imports
- A planned 100 000‑hectare coffee development zone, involving smallholders, mechanised farmers and investors
“These are transformative projects,” he said, although he warned that ongoing insecurity in regions such as Oromia and Amhara threatens productivity and stability.
Costantinos emphasised that Ethiopia’s long-term growth prospects rely on addressing several systemic weaknesses.
1. Peace and security:
“The first thing is peace,” he said. National dialogue efforts are underway, but he noted that conflict‑affected regions account for more than half of the population.
2. Tackling illicit financial flows:
A recent Global Financial Integrity report shows Ethiopia has lost more than $36 billion to illicit outflows over the past decade, a trend he described as “equivalent to a national debt.”
3. Addressing corruption:
Government reports have revealed billions of birr in unaccounted public funds each year. “The government must look seriously at corruption,” he stressed.
4. Supporting domestic industries under African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA):
He warned that imported goods, particularly from large economies such as China, are often far cheaper than local products, causing factory closures and undermining industrialisation.
However, he said the African Continental Free Trade Area offers a crucial opportunity for African manufacturers to access wider markets.
Despite the challenges, Costantinos expressed confidence that Ethiopia can achieve sustained high growth if reforms continue.
“The government can do this, and I believe it is committed,” he said. “Its digital transformation agenda is certainly aligned with achieving that growth.”
–ChannelAfrica–
