The programme is designed to support the authorities’ efforts to adjust the economy to structurally declining hydrocarbon production.
Equatorial Guinea’s economy is estimated to have contracted by 6.4% in 2025, reflecting a sharp fall in hydrocarbon output after modest overall growth in 2024. With further declines in oil and gas production expected, the IMF projects that the economy will continue to shrink slightly over the medium term.
Inflationary pressures have eased, dropping from a peak of 3.5% in March 2023 to 2.6% in October 2025.
The authorities preserved the gains from their significant 2024 fiscal adjustment during the first half of 2025. They remained aligned with their target of a non‑hydrocarbon primary balance of –17.8% of non‑hydrocarbon GDP for the year.
Despite this consolidation, public debt is estimated to have increased from 36.4% of GDP in 2024 to 39.2% of GDP at the end of 2025, partly due to declining hydrocarbon revenue.
Equatorial Guinea’s contribution to regional central bank reserves remained negative in 2025, following losses in both 2023 and 2024. To counter these pressures, the authorities aim to deepen fiscal adjustment to keep public debt below 50% of GDP and restore external balance over the medium term.
Over the past year, the authorities have implemented substantial reforms within the framework of the SMP. Fiscal policy in 2025 was consistent with their strategy to stabilise debt levels and improve the external position. Key reforms included strengthening tax and customs administration, prioritising social spending, and eliminating public school bus fees to ease burdens on families.
The government has also sought regional approval for its domestic arrears clearance plan, considered vital for bolstering financial sector health.
Performance under the SMP has been strong:
- All end‑June 2025 quantitative targets were met.
- Two of the four structural benchmarks for end‑September 2025 were achieved.
- A 2026 budget aligned with programme objectives was approved, meeting an additional end-of-December benchmark.
The IMF noted that Equatorial Guinea is making progress toward establishing the policy track record required for potential access to financing under the Fund’s Upper Credit Tranche. Continued progress, however, hinges on the implementation of key governance reforms.
A central requirement is the publication of a hydrocarbon sector transparency report; work on this has already begun, reflecting the authorities’ commitment to greater openness in a sector that remains critical to the country’s economy.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
