The FCL, approved in April 2025, remains precautionary, with the IMF confirming that Morocco continues to meet the strict qualification criteria. The review highlights Morocco’s continued economic resilience, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimated at 4.9% in 2025.
The expansion was driven by a strong rebound in agriculture and a surge in large‑scale infrastructure projects. Inflation remained low at 0.8%, enabling Bank Al‑Maghrib to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance.
The current account deficit widened moderately to 2.1% of GDP due to higher investment‑related imports, although strong tourism inflows provided partial offset. Solid revenue performance allowed the government to contain the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP, despite larger‑than‑anticipated public investment and support to state‑owned enterprises.
Looking ahead, the IMF expects growth to remain robust, projecting real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, stabilising around 4% over the medium term. The forecast assumes continued infrastructure investment, increased private‑sector participation and normalising agricultural output. Inflation is expected to rise temporarily due to higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, before returning to around 2% over the medium term.
The current account deficit is expected to widen moderately over the medium term, reflecting the high import content of Morocco’s investment programme and elevated commodity prices. Nonetheless, international reserves are projected to remain at adequate levels. The fiscal framework anticipates a gradual decline in public debt to 60.5% of GDP by 2031.
The IMF warns, however, that downside risks have increased. External risks include greater commodity price volatility due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, weaker global demand, especially in the euro area, and disruptions to global supply chains. Domestically, the main risk stems from lower‑than‑expected returns on major public investment projects, which could slow employment creation and growth.
IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura praised Morocco’s policy strength while underscoring the need for vigilance. “Agriculture, construction and tourism boosted economic activity in 2025, and growth momentum is projected to remain strong. But heightened geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty require prudent macroeconomic management, strengthened human‑capital investment and steadfast implementation of structural reforms.”
The IMF confirmed that Morocco continues to meet all qualification criteria for the FCL, noting its “very strong macroeconomic policies, strong institutional frameworks and commitment to maintaining such policies.” The authorities reiterated their intention to treat the credit line as precautionary and to gradually exit the arrangement as external risks ease.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
