Stalled oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and output disruptions because of the Iran war have led analysts to increase their annual price forecasts by the most in Reuters poll records.
The survey conducted in March predicts Brent crude will average $82.85 per barrel in 2026, about 30% higher than February’s forecast of $63.85, polled before the war began. The findings were based on responses from 38 economists and analysts.
The $19 surge represents the steepest annual forecast increase yet on the basis of Reuters monthly oil poll data, which goes as far back as 2005.
United States (US) crude is projected to average $76.78 per barrel, up from February’s estimate of $60.38. Both benchmarks have gained about 60% since the conflict began on February 28, with Brent set for a record monthly jump.
The month-long conflict has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transits, prompting Gulf producers to cut output in response.
“Another few weeks of disruption carries the risk that oil futures based west of Suez will replicate the high prices already seen east of Suez,” said Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank.
“Unless the Strait opens soon, the risk of prices rallying to demand destruction territory cannot be ruled out.”
Some analysts say oil could test its 2008 record of $147 a barrel in a risk scenario whereby the Strait remains closed for an extended period. They largely expect supply flows to gradually recover in April and May, although prices are set to remain elevated even after.
“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month with no signs of a pending resolution, the price of Brent crude will move toward $190,” said John Paisie, President of Stratas Advisors.
While some recovery is expected in the third quarter, supply is projected to remain below pre-crisis levels throughout 2026 as shut-ins and infrastructure issues slow the recovery process.
–Reuters–
