The report warns that if the conflict continues for more than six months, Africa’s overall gross domestic product growth could be 0.2 percentage points lower in 2026. Many African economies are still expanding below their pre‑COVID trajectories, leaving them more vulnerable to external shocks. The impact is expected to vary significantly depending on countries’ reliance on imports, exposure to Middle Eastern trade and prevailing global market conditions.
Rising energy prices are identified as the most immediate transmission channel. By late March, oil prices had risen by about 50%, sharply increasing inflation risks across the continent. At the same time, the currencies of 29 African countries have depreciated, pushing up the local‑currency cost of imports and external debt servicing, while adding pressure to foreign exchange reserves.
The policy brief cautions that disruptions to fertiliser supplies could be even more damaging than higher oil prices. Interruptions to natural gas supplies from the Gulf threaten the production of ammonia and urea, raising the risk of fertiliser shortages and price spikes during the critical March to May planting season. This could drive food prices higher and worsen food insecurity, particularly among low‑income and rural households.
Africa’s close trade links with the Middle East amplify these risks. The region accounts for 15.8% of Africa’s imports and 10.9% of its exports, while the Strait of Hormuz remains a key artery for global oil shipments.
However, the report notes that a small number of countries may see short‑term gains. Nigeria could benefit from higher oil prices and increased output from the Dangote Refinery. Meanwhile, ports in South Africa, Namibia and Mauritius are experiencing increased traffic as shipping routes divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
To mitigate the shock, the brief urges African governments and institutions to pursue coordinated responses that combine short‑term protection for vulnerable groups with medium‑term resilience measures and longer‑term strategies to strengthen energy, food and financial security.
–AU/ChannelAfrica–
