The current Middle East conflict runs the risk of placing stagflation pressures on the global economy.

This was the concern raised by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in its release of its Monetary Policy Review for the six months over October 2025 to March 2026.

This, in light of the uncertain and highly volatile situation that has resulted in significantly higher oil prices, with the Brent crude oil price breaching the $100 a barrel mark.

But the SARB’s key message was that despite the current energy shock, it remains committed to anchoring inflation to 3% target level in the medium-to-long term.

Various stakeholders braved the cold weather to get the Reserve Bank’s reflections on monetary policy over the period of October 2025 through to March 2026.

It noted that inflation had been subdued during the period, reaching the new inflation target of 3.0% by February.

But that the United States and Israel-led war against Iran, initiated at the end of February, had now reversed the fortunes of local and global growth, with inflation expected to surge in the near-term.

But the SARB Governor said the bank would not be detracted from still pursuing its latest inflation target over the long-term.

–SABC–