Enrica Picco, Central Africa Project Director at the International Crisis Group, said the most immediate impact of Sudan’s conflict on Chad remains humanitarian. More than one million Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees have fled into eastern Chad since the war began three years ago, with most arrivals concentrated in Wadi Fira, where the local population figures have effectively doubled.
Conditions in the camps remain dire, with limited assistance and growing pressure on host communities. Picco said reduced humanitarian support, particularly following the suspension of US-backed aid, has worsened access to basic services such as healthcare, education and shelter for refugees and local residents alike.
Trauma remains another defining feature of displacement. Picco said many arrivals fled extreme violence in Darfur, including mass killings in El Geneina in 2023 and renewed displacement after the fall of El Fasher following a prolonged siege. Many displaced families require psychosocial support alongside food and shelter.
Beyond the humanitarian fallout, Picco said the conflict is increasingly reshaping Chad’s security and political landscape. Chad initially declared neutrality in 2023 and attempted to position mediation efforts, but neutrality has come under question since late 2023.
Picco cited multiple sources alleging that Chad has served as a transit route for weapons allegedly supplied to the Rapid Support Forces via external actors, claims denied by the accused parties. Picco said reported flows of arms and ammunition have fuelled perceptions of partiality and increased vulnerability to retaliation.
The situation carries particular sensitivity due to ethnic and political dynamics around Darfur. El Fasher hosts a significant Zaghawa population, a cross-border community present in both Sudan and Chad. Chad’s leadership has historic links to the Zaghawa community, raising risks of heightened mobilisation and internal pressure as violence expands.
Picco warned that continued conflict in Sudan could deepen instability in Chad, especially as border insecurity, displacement and contested narratives converge. The combination of attacks, humanitarian strain and regional rivalries is creating a fragile environment with limited room for error.
–ChannelAfrica–
