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Renewed Tigray clashes could deepen Horn of Africa instability

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Political Scientist and Conflict Resolution Analyst David Matsanga says renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region risks worsening instability across the Horn of Africa.

 

Hundreds of Ethiopians from Tigray have reportedly fled into neighbouring Sudan following clashes between regional forces and the Ethiopian National Defence Force.

 

The fighting is being described as the most serious confrontation since the end of Ethiopia’s civil war, which killed hundreds of thousands of people and led to the African Union (AU)-brokered Pretoria Agreement in 2022.

 

Matsanga said the renewed violence does not come as a surprise, arguing that the peace agreement failed to include all relevant actors. “When the agreement was hammered, I told people, I was in Johannesburg by then; you interviewed me. And I was saying this agreement might not last,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga said the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement was flawed because it focused mainly on the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. “We did not bring all the groups on board. We did one group between the government and Tigray. We left some other groups, interested parties,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga also accused Eritrea of playing a destabilising role in the Horn of Africa, saying the country has not been held accountable for its alleged involvement in regional conflicts. “Every time there is a conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray, Ethiopia and other regions fighting around there, Eritrea has a hand,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga said regional and international tensions around the Red Sea are adding to the risks facing Ethiopia and the broader Horn.

 

According to Matsanga, rivalry linked to Nile waters, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and international military interests in the Red Sea have made the region more volatile. “The rivalry in the dam issue of the River Nile waters has flown into the Red Sea channel,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga warned that Sudan, already facing civil war and a humanitarian catastrophe, could struggle to cope with another influx of refugees from Ethiopia. “Sudan is already an area of no God zone, a humanitarian catastrophe,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga said millions of people in Sudan are already displaced and lack access to food, water, medicine, education and shelter. “If you have another exodus of refugees leaving Ethiopia to go into Sudan, we are having a catastrophe,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga called for urgent peace talks involving all warring parties in the region, arguing that African leaders must act before the situation deteriorates further. “African leaders wake up and let’s talk about peace,” Matsanga said.

 

Matsanga also criticised the AU, saying the continental body needs reform to respond more effectively to crises. “The AU must be reformed,” Matsanga said.

 

According to Matsanga, failure to address the renewed Ethiopia tensions, Sudan’s war and wider Red Sea instability could create a larger humanitarian and security crisis across the Horn of Africa.

 

–ChannelAfrica–