The warning comes as South Sudan moves towards national elections amid renewed violence, political tensions and worsening humanitarian conditions.
The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan said multiple warning signs associated with genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing are now converging. “The window to prevent a return to the scale of atrocities and displacement South Sudan endured between 2013 and 2018 is closing, but it has not yet completely shut,” the commission said.
The commission warned that holding elections without key safeguards could deepen existing divisions and fuel further conflict. “Fifteen years after independence, South Sudan is at one of its most dangerous points,” the commission said.
According to the commission, at least 407 ceasefire violations were recorded between August 2025 and January 2026, while fighting has resumed in Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity states. Clashes and civilian deaths have also been reported in Western Equatoria and Central Equatoria.
The commission said almost half of the key provisions contained in the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan remain unimplemented.
One of the most significant outstanding issues is the unification of the country’s security forces, a measure widely viewed as essential for lasting peace and political stability.
The commission also expressed concern over exclusionary politics, shrinking civic space, weak institutions and the continued lack of accountability mechanisms.
According to the panel, many of the institutions and processes designed to reduce tensions and support peaceful elections have either weakened or been suspended.
Commission Chair Yasmin Sooka said South Sudanese citizens have the right to participate in free and peaceful elections after waiting 15 years since independence.
However, Commissioner Barney Afako warned that increasing militarisation is undermining conditions needed for a credible vote. “The guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing. That is a profoundly dangerous trajectory,” Afako said.
The commission also criticised what it described as the abandonment of inclusive political dialogue.
Without broader participation and engagement, the panel warned that elections could worsen divisions rather than help resolve them peacefully.
Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández said credible elections require more than simply adhering to an electoral timetable. “An election cannot be credible simply because it is held on schedule,” Fernández said.
“It is credible when citizens can vote without fear, political opponents can participate freely, courts can resolve disputes independently, and institutions can constrain the exercise of power.”
The commission urged South Sudan’s leaders to recommit to the peace agreement, restore inclusive dialogue and strengthen democratic safeguards to prevent the country from sliding back into widespread violence.
–UN/ChannelAfrica–
