The UN Global Risk Report draws on responses from 1 300 experts across governments, international organisations, civil society, academia and the private sector.
Respondents assessed 28 political, economic, environmental, social and technological threats according to likelihood, potential damage, interconnectedness and global preparedness. Large-scale war climbed 16 places from the 2024 rankings, the sharpest increase of any risk assessed.
About 36% of respondents believe a major war could affect a significant proportion of humanity within one year, while 76% expect such an impact within seven years. “The findings are sobering. Political risks have moved centre stage,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
“The prospect of large-scale war is seen as far more important and far more immediate than it was two years ago. At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as less able to act.”
Large-scale war and geopolitical tension now rank among the 10 leading threats across all seven regions covered by the survey. Both risks appear among the top five in six regions. Weapons of mass destruction also entered the top 10 in Central and Southern Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.
Concerns about artificial intelligence, a possible global financial crisis and the growing power of technology companies rose in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. AI-related risks also entered the top 10 in Europe and North America.
Climate inaction remained the most important overall threat, despite geopolitical risks receiving greater attention. The report warned that falling visibility for other environmental dangers could result in reduced funding. The assessment identified 705 links among the risks. The connection between geopolitical tension and large-scale war was the strongest.
Natural resource shortages, economic fragmentation, misinformation and weakening multilateral institutions could intensify geopolitical tensions and increase the likelihood of conflict. Weak governance, poor coordination, limited political consensus and declining public trust were identified as major barriers to managing global threats.
About 86% of respondents said funding for risk reduction remained inadequate.
The report stressed that the findings represented perceptions rather than predictions. Respondents nevertheless identified cooperation among governments as the most effective means of prevention. “We owe it to present and future generations to use this knowledge wisely, and to act while cooperation can still shape a safer course,” Guterres said.
“The choice is ours.”
–UN/ChannelAfrica–
