The Macroeconomic Effects of Forced Displacement in Sub-Saharan Africa study examined cross-country data alongside evidence from Burkina Faso, South Sudan and Uganda.
The number of forcibly displaced people in the region increased from 8.7 million in 2010 to 40.9 million in 2025, accounting for about 35% of the global total.
Around 30 million were internally displaced, nearly three times the number of refugees. Uganda hosted almost 2 million refugees, making it the region’s largest host country.
The study found no statistically significant effect from large refugee inflows on host-country gross domestic product, consumer prices, current-account balances or primary fiscal balances over five years.
Government expenditure nevertheless increased by about 1 percentage point of gross domestic product initially and peaked at 2.5 percentage points after two years.
Revenue increased alongside expenditure, driven mainly by taxes linked to refugee-related consumption and humanitarian activity. Tax revenue was almost 2 percentage points of gross domestic product higher after five years.
The findings differed when refugees and internally displaced people were assessed together. Countries with displaced populations exceeding 5% of the national population recorded significantly weaker economic output.
However, researchers cautioned that the effect could not be separated fully from the conflict causing displacement.
Country-level findings were mixed. Internal displacement reduced employment opportunities in Burkina Faso, particularly in urban areas, while refugee inflows were associated with increased employment among Ugandan host communities.
Ugandan households nevertheless recorded lower consumption as growing populations placed pressure on housing, transport, healthcare and other services.
Food-price effects also varied by product. Imported and processed foods generally became more expensive, while locally produced cereals remained stable or declined.
In South Sudan, maize meal prices increased by 68% and wheat flour by 32% after 12 months, while white millet declined by 19%.
The IMF researchers said displaced people’s participation in agriculture could strengthen local food supplies.
Policies providing access to land, agricultural inputs, employment and extension services could improve displaced people’s livelihoods while benefiting host communities.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
