The fund has forecasted only a slight slowing of global growth this year and in 2026. IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva said the United States (US) economy had dodged a recession feared by many experts just six months ago. The US economy and many others had held up, given better policies, a more adaptable private sector, less severe import tariffs than feared,  at least for now, and supportive financial conditions, according to a text of her remarks to an event at the Milken Institute in Washington.

“We see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks,” Georgieva said in a preview of the IMF’s upcoming World Economic Outlook.

In July, the IMF raised its global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% for 2026. It will release a fresh outlook next Tuesday during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington. The gathering takes place at a time when US President Donald Trump has upended global trade with steep tariffs and cracked down on immigration, and artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming technology and the outlook for labour.

The world economy is doing “better than feared, but worse than needed,” Georgieva said, noting that the IMF was forecasting global growth of roughly 3% over the medium-term, well below the 3.7% forecast before the COVID-19 pandemic. Georgieva cited deep undercurrents of marginalization, discontent and hardship around the world, and said the global economy faced an array of risks.

–Reuters–