The figure represents the lowest inflation level recorded since January 2023, according to official data.
The easing was driven mainly by a sharp fall in food inflation, which declined to 26.5% in December from 30.1% the previous month. Food prices carry more than half the weight in Malawi’s consumer price index, making them a decisive factor in overall inflation trends.
In contrast, non-food inflation continued to rise, accelerating to 25.2% from 24.2% in November, reflecting higher costs for housing, transport and clothing.
Macroeconomist and President of the Economics Association of Malawi, Dr Bertha Bangara-Chikadza, said the recent slowdown reflects deliberate government intervention in food markets rather than a structural shift in price dynamics.
“Food inflation takes over 50% of the CPI basket, so any movement in food prices has a direct impact on headline inflation,” she said, noting that Malawi typically experiences rising food prices between November and February during the lean season.
This year, however, the pattern shifted after the government prioritised food availability amid widespread food insecurity linked to climate shocks, including El Niño-related disruptions that reduced agricultural output.
Measures included maize imports from Zambia, increased purchases by the National Food Reserve Agency, and the reopening of Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation depots, which helped boost supply and curb prices.
“These actions increased the availability of maize in the market and discouraged hoarding, which pushed food prices down and pulled overall inflation lower,” Bangara-Chikadza said.
Despite the improvement, economists caution that the gains may be difficult to sustain without addressing rising production costs. Fertiliser prices have surged to between 150 000 and 170 000 kwacha per 50 kg bag, while maize prices remain far lower, raising concerns that farmers could be discouraged from planting in the coming season.
“For the decline in food inflation to be sustained, the government needs to ensure affordable access to inputs such as fertiliser, seeds and other farming implements,” she said, adding that subsidies and guaranteed markets could help support domestic production and reduce reliance on imports.
Non-food inflation remains a growing concern, largely driven by exchange rate pressures and the cost of imports, including fuel, fertiliser, second-hand vehicles and clothing. Analysts warn that persistent increases in these areas could offset recent progress made on the food side.
Looking ahead to 2026, Bangara-Chikadza expects inflation to continue easing over the next three to four months, but flagged risks linked to weather-related shocks. Flooding in central Malawi, a key maize-producing region, could affect harvest outcomes and reignite price pressures if supply falls short.
She said early agricultural estimates and swift policy responses, including targeted imports or expanded irrigation, will be critical in determining whether Malawi can maintain a downward inflation trajectory through the rest of the year.
–ChannelAfrica–
