Experts, however, caution that the move is driven more by geopolitics than by African development priorities.

The bill, which would extend AGOA until December 2028, received overwhelming bipartisan support in the House, with more than 84% of lawmakers voting in favour. It now moves to the US Senate for consideration. Despite the positive signal, uncertainty remains over South Africa’s (SA) continued eligibility amid strained diplomatic relations with Washington.

Speaking to Channel Africa on Tuesday, Dr Sizo Nkala, Research Fellow at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg, said the vote reflects sustained US interest in Africa, but within a strategic global context.

“The scale of bipartisan support shows that the US is taking Africa seriously,” Nkala noted. “However, this needs to be understood within the current geopolitical environment, where AGOA is increasingly framed as a tool to counter the influence of China and Russia on the continent.”

Nkala argued that the language accompanying the bill underscores Washington’s strategic motivations, particularly competition over Africa’s critical mineral resources. He pointed out that Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical minerals, resources the US is keen to secure as it competes with China for access.

“In that sense, AGOA is instrumental to US national interests,” Nkala said. “It is less about Africa’s own development priorities and more about geopolitical positioning.”

He added that the potential benefits of AGOA are further undermined by universal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year, which remain in force. According to Nkala, the AGOA renewal explicitly states that it does not override these tariffs, meaning goods entering the US under AGOA preferences would still be subject to the additional levies.

“As long as those unilateral tariffs remain in place, they dilute the impact of AGOA significantly,” he said.

On whether AGOA remains worthwhile for African countries under these conditions, Nkala said the decision ultimately rests with individual governments. Some may choose to remain within the framework, while others could pursue bilateral trade agreements with Washington instead.

“From my perspective, there is limited benefit in AGOA if the tariffs imposed last year are not removed,” he said.

Turning to SA, Nkala painted a bleak picture for the country’s continued inclusion in the scheme. He highlighted growing political tensions and legislative developments in the US that directly challenge SA’s eligibility.

“Two bills were introduced last year, one in the Senate and one in the House, calling for a review of US–SA relations,” he said. “The Senate bill explicitly called for the removal of SAs AGOA eligibility, citing what the Trump administration described as an anti-US foreign policy stance, particularly Pretoria’s ties with China and Russia.”

Nkala also pointed to concerns raised during the 2026 AGOA eligibility review, including questions around SA’s compliance with international intellectual property and copyright treaties, a key requirement under AGOA.

“These factors significantly undermine SA’s prospects,” he said, adding that stalled efforts to negotiate a bilateral trade deal with the US suggest a lack of meaningful engagement between the two governments.

Should SA be excluded from AGOA, Nkala warned of severe consequences for key export sectors. He noted that in 2024, South Africa exported more than $2 billion worth of automotive and auto parts to the US, alongside roughly $500 million in agricultural products.

“The automotive and agricultural sectors have benefited the most from AGOA,” he said. “Exclusion would have a major impact, with thousands of jobs at risk.”

Despite these risks, Nkala argued that SA has little choice but to continue pursuing a bilateral trade agreement with the US to mitigate the effects of punitive tariffs, including the 30% tariff imposed on South African goods.

Looking ahead to the Senate process, Nkala said the strong bipartisan backing in the House suggests the extension is likely to pass, although amendments remain possible.

“The Senate may push for a longer extension,” he said, noting that a bipartisan Senate proposal in April 2024 called for a 16-year renewal. “But overall, the chances of the bill passing are high.”

–ChannelAfrica–