The IMF assessment comes as Ghana continues strengthening the financial system following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme, which placed considerable pressure on banks and other financial institutions.
Post-programme improvements in capitalisation, profitability and liquidity have increased the banking system’s ability to absorb financial shocks. However, the recovery remains uneven across institutions.
Gold accounts for more than half of Ghana’s export receipts, close to 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) and about 21% of direct tax revenue. A sharp price decline could therefore reduce foreign exchange earnings and government revenue while weakening the cedi, increasing inflation and raising sovereign risk.
The IMF modelled two persistent shocks, involving gold price declines of 30% and 45%.
Under the 30% scenario, the cedi could depreciate by as much as 23.4%, while inflation could rise by up to 1.57 percentage points above the baseline. The shock could also reduce real GDP growth by between 0.73 and 1.55 percentage points.
Ghana’s banking system entered the exercise from a stronger position, with the system-wide capital adequacy ratio reaching about 22% in March 2026, above the 13% regulatory minimum.
Under the broader stress-testing framework, the aggregate capital ratio remained above the regulatory threshold, declining from 17.7% in the baseline to 17.2% under the moderate scenario. The IMF cautioned that system-wide resilience masks vulnerabilities among weaker domestic institutions.
Banks have limited direct exposure to the mining and quarrying industry. Loans to the sector accounted for 5.3% of total loans at the end of 2025, while the sector’s non-performing loan ratio stood at 10.4%, below the 18.1% industry average.
The larger risk would come through weaker growth, currency depreciation, inflation, sovereign exposure and rising bad loans across the economy.
The Bank of Ghana faces greater vulnerability because of gold holdings in the reserve portfolio. Under the most severe scenario, central bank equity could decline to 9% below GDP if gold accounts for 50% of reserves.
The IMF recommended maintaining strong bank capital buffers, resolving remaining weak institutions and incorporating commodity-price risks into central bank recapitalisation planning.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
