Diplomatic tensions and active fighting across the Horn of Africa are threatening to undo years of delicate peacebuilding, following new accusations of external meddling and a fresh military escalation in northern Ethiopia.
The developments come as leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan issued a joint declaration calling for peaceful political solutions during a summit in New Alamein City, Egypt. However, Ethiopia has directly accused Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of backing an armed alliance fighting its federal government, allegations all three nations strongly deny.
Speaking on Africa Update, Advocate Sipho Mantula, a researcher at the Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs, attributed the fresh fighting in northern Ethiopia to fundamental oversights in past peace processes.
“What is missing here are those unresolved issues that came out of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Accord,” Mantula explained, pointing to the unaddressed role of Eritrea, unresolved political representation for Tigray in the federal government, and the total failure of the Demobilisation, Disarmament, and Reintegration (DDR) process. He added that the recent severing of diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea marks a deeply concerning turn for regional stability.
The renewed hostility carries severe humanitarian and geopolitical consequences, triggering fresh civilian displacement, economic disruption, and territorial disputes across border zones. Mantula warned that the instability undermines the credibility of international bodies, noting that Addis Ababa serves as the headquarters for both the African Union (AU) and key United Nations operations.
Addressing Ethiopia’s allegations of foreign backing, Mantula noted that while states naturally issue diplomatic denials, underlying intelligence often points to proxy involvement. “Intelligence is a dark space,” he said, citing ongoing friction over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as an underlying catalyst for regional tension.
To prevent further collapse across the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, analysts argue that Continental organisations like the AU and IGAD must move beyond political rhetoric. Restoring stability will require true political commitment, re-engaging warring factions like the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and addressing the root causes of conflict to ensure the AU’s goal of “Silencing the Guns” does not become a mere illusion.
–ChannelAfrica–
