Young people and workers in poorer countries are facing growing risks from artificial intelligence and trade uncertainty, according to a new report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
The ILO’s latest World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2026 projects the global unemployment rate at about 4.9% this year, equivalent to roughly 186 million people without work. While headline unemployment figures show little change, the report warns that underlying weaknesses in job quality, income security and inclusion persist.
Employment growth is increasingly concentrated in low-income countries, reflecting ageing populations in wealthier economies where fewer people of working age are entering or remaining in the labour market. Job growth in upper-middle-income countries is projected at just 0.5%, compared with 3.1% in low-income nations.
However, the report stresses that having a job does not necessarily mean earning a decent living. Nearly 300 million workers worldwide are living in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day. An estimated 2.1 billion people are expected to be working in the informal economy this year, often without access to social protection, labour rights or job security.
Youth employment remains a major concern, particularly in low-income countries, where the ILO describes the outlook as “daunting”. More than 27.9% of young people globally are not in education, employment or training. Even in high-income economies, educated youth face uncertainty, with the report warning that artificial intelligence and automation could make it harder for young jobseekers to enter the labour market without careful policy oversight.
The report also highlights stalled progress on gender equality in the workplace. Deeply rooted social norms and stereotypes continue to limit women’s participation in the labour force. Women are currently about 24% less likely than men to be economically active, with previous gains toward closing the gender gap showing signs of slowing.
Trade uncertainty is another growing risk to global employment. In 2025, shifts in international trade rules and tariff regimes, led by the United States, created widespread disruption. Trade-related activities support about 465 million jobs globally, more than half of them in Asia and the Pacific. The report notes that uncertainty has already begun to erode wages, particularly in Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and parts of Europe.
Responding to the findings, ILO Director-General Gilbert Houngbo called for stronger coordination between governments, employers and workers to address the structural challenges facing labour markets.
He warned that without collective action to manage technological change responsibly and expand quality job opportunities, especially for women and young people, deficits in decent work would persist, increasing the risk of social instability, particularly in poorer economies.
–UN/ChannelAfrica–
