In a joint statement issued at the conclusion of the African Consultative Group meeting, the group’s Chairperson, Gambian Finance Minister Seedy Keita, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the conflict is weighing on global growth prospects and adding pressure to already fragile economies.
Under a scenario of relatively swift normalisation, global growth is projected to ease to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. However, they cautioned that a prolonged conflict or delayed recovery in production and transport would result in a sharper slowdown.
For Africa, the outlook has weakened compared with earlier projections. Real gross domestic product growth is now expected to decline from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026. Growth in Sub‑Saharan Africa is projected to slow to 4.3%, while North Africa is expected to grow by 4.1% next year.
The statement said high debt‑service costs, limited access to affordable financing and rising development needs are constraining policy space, particularly in low‑income, fragile and conflict‑affected countries. The war risks further scarring through renewed inflation, food shortages and social tensions.
African leaders and the IMF agreed that governments must address the immediate shock while building resilience over the medium term.
Near‑term priorities include anchoring inflation expectations and protecting vulnerable populations through targeted and time‑bound support. Fiscal policy should remain credible but flexible, saving temporary windfalls in oil‑exporting countries while safeguarding priority social spending in oil‑importing nations.
They also called for accelerated reforms to drive growth and diversification, deeper regional integration, stronger domestic financial markets and increased investment in power and digital infrastructure to harness artificial intelligence safely and productively.
The group welcomed progress on the review of the Low‑Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework, saying it would improve the ability to assess rising debt risks amid war‑related shocks. They also urged the IMF to deliver more tailored surveillance and strengthen analysis of spillovers and imbalances.
The IMF reaffirmed its commitment to supporting African countries through policy advice, financing and capacity building as they navigate an increasingly complex global environment.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
