The IMF said Mali met all quantitative and structural targets under the programme, including benchmarks related to tax collection, social spending, fiscal management and governance reforms.
According to the Fund, economic activity faced significant headwinds in 2025, including lower gold production, fuel supply disruptions linked to terrorist attacks and broader security-related pressures. However, conditions have improved following measures to stabilise fuel supplies and enhance security.
A major boost to the outlook is expected to come from the mining sector. The resolution of a dispute involving Mali’s largest gold mine in late 2025 is projected to support exports, government revenues and overall economic activity.
The IMF forecasts that Mali’s economy will grow by approximately 5.5% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.9% in 2025, as gold production recovers, business confidence improves, and credit growth strengthens. Inflation is also expected to remain relatively low, easing from 2.9% in 2025 to around 2.2% in 2026.
The Fund estimates that the agreement reached with the country’s largest gold producer could contribute about 0.2 percentage points to economic growth next year while also strengthening Mali’s external and fiscal position.
The IMF highlighted progress in public financial management, noting that the government achieved targets related to social spending, domestic revenue mobilisation and arrears management. Authorities also reduced outstanding payments owed to private suppliers.
Digital tax collection reforms exceeded expectations, with electronic payments accounting for more than 43% of tax receipts by the end of 2025.
Despite the improved outlook, the IMF cautioned that significant risks remain. Security conditions continue to be fragile, while higher global oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could raise fuel import costs and place additional pressure on public finances.
The Fund also noted that financing conditions in regional debt markets remain challenging.
The IMF encouraged Mali to continue strengthening governance, expanding its tax base and managing potential windfall revenues from high gold prices prudently. It further urged authorities to maintain reform momentum as they consider pursuing a future financing arrangement under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility.
According to the Fund, the Staff-Monitored Programme has helped strengthen institutional capacity, improve transparency and support macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable growth and further economic reforms.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
