The agreement requires approval from IMF Management and the Executive Board.
Approval would raise total disbursements under the Extended Credit Facility to approximately $53.9 million. “I am pleased to announce that we have reached staff-level agreement with the Guinea-Bissau authorities,” IMF Mission Chief Niko Hobdari said.
Guinea-Bissau’s economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, supported by a successful cashew export campaign.
Cashew export volumes exceeded 2025 levels by nearly 12%, while stronger customs controls supported farmers’ incomes and wider economic activity.
Inflation stood at minus 0.7% year-on-year in September despite higher international fuel prices. Lower food prices and controlled domestic fuel prices helped contain inflation.
The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 4.2% of gross domestic product in 2026, while public debt is expected to remain broadly unchanged at about 74%.
Compensation to fuel importers increased because government-controlled pump prices generated losses, but higher cashew revenue, lower foreign-financed project spending and tighter expenditure controls supported the fiscal position.
The draft 2027 Budget seeks to preserve fiscal discipline while creating space for investment supporting economic growth and development.
The IMF warned that adverse weather, weaker terms of trade, political instability and tighter financing conditions continued to threaten the outlook.
Guinea-Bissau has reduced the fiscal deficit from 8.2% of gross domestic product in 2023 to a projected 4.2% in 2026.
The IMF said the programme had strengthened domestic revenue mobilisation, public financial management and debt management.
Future reforms should strengthen tax compliance, improve public investment implementation and address vulnerabilities in the financial sector.
Guinea-Bissau should also develop stronger social-assistance and safety-net programmes to reduce poverty. “Sustained fiscal discipline and prudent borrowing will be essential to preserve the fiscal consolidation gains and keep public debt on a firm downward trajectory,” Hobdari said.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
