On March 18 2026, the Board reviewed an IMF staff paper on macroeconomic developments and prospects in low‑income countries, defined as the 70 nations eligible for the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust. The IMF noted that while some vulnerabilities have eased, risks remain elevated and outcomes vary widely across countries.
Average gross domestic product (GDP) growth across low‑income countries reached 4.8% in 2025, but performance was highly uneven. Some economies are among the fastest‑growing globally, while others continue to expand too slowly to lift per‑capita incomes, particularly those affected by conflict and fragility. Inflation has generally declined, although pockets of high price pressures remain.
Fiscal consolidation has contributed to modest reductions in public debt, but debt vulnerabilities remain high. The IMF expressed concern about the sharp rise in domestic borrowing, warning that this could heighten risks to financial stability through stronger links between governments and local banks.
The Fund said external financing conditions for low‑income countries have shifted significantly. Net capital inflows have fallen by about one-third since peaking in the 2010 to 2014 period, reflecting declines in foreign direct investment and external borrowing. Official development assistance has also dropped to 4.3% of low‑income country GDP, from an average of 5%, and is expected to continue falling, alongside shifts from grants toward loans.
Although remittances have been rising, the IMF warned that tighter global immigration policies pose risks to these flows. Countries with low foreign exchange reserves remain particularly vulnerable to changes in commodity prices, global interest rates and further aid cuts, including spillovers from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The report highlighted that stronger fiscal discipline and institutions, particularly revenue administration and public financial management, are key to attracting higher and higher‑quality foreign direct investment. By contrast, fiscal incentives such as tax breaks are only effective when institutions are strong.
Executive Directors called for resolute domestic reforms, targeted capacity development and better coordination with development partners. They emphasised the need to prioritise concessional finance for poorer and fragile countries, while reaffirming the IMF’s role in policy advice, financing and institutional support.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
