In a statement on Monday, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy continues to show stability despite rising energy prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. “More than three months into the war… the global economy appears to be holding up,” Georgieva said.
Georgieva noted that commodity prices, inflation and financial conditions have all been affected, but not yet to levels that would trigger a global slowdown. Strong economic momentum in major economies such as the United States and China has helped cushion the impact.
However, Georgieva cautioned that the overall picture masks widening disparities, particularly in developing regions. “In Africa, the negative impacts are more conspicuous,” Georgieva said.
Oil prices remain a central concern, with global prices about 30% higher than pre-war levels. While some countries have managed the shock by using reserves or increasing production, Georgieva warned that such measures have limits. “Here too, there are limits to how long countries can manage higher budgetary costs,” Georgieva said.
Higher energy costs are contributing to rising inflation in many economies, although medium-term inflation expectations remain relatively stable, indicating continued confidence in central banks.
Georgieva said the effects are uneven across regions, with countries heavily dependent on energy imports facing greater strain. In Africa, rising fuel costs are increasing fiscal pressures and worsening external balances. “Several African countries have been managing fuel shortages… and most are feeling the pain of sharp fuel price increases,” Georgieva said.
The impact is also extending to agriculture, with higher energy prices driving up fertiliser and food costs, raising concerns about food security.
Georgieva stressed that policymakers must respond with discipline and flexibility. “Maintaining price stability is essential,” Georgieva said, adding that fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary to avoid long-term damage.
The IMF said it is working with affected countries to provide policy guidance and financial support where needed, as uncertainty around the conflict continues.
Georgieva warned that while the global economy has so far weathered the shock, further escalation could pose a serious risk to growth. “The IMF remains on high alert… our commitment to our membership is unwavering,” Georgieva said.
–ChannelAfrica–
