Speaking at Japan’s Ministry of Finance symposium in Tokyo on the “Future of the Global Economy amid a Fluid International Economic and Monetary Order,” she warned that resilience would again be tested by disrupted energy supplies and rising prices.
Georgieva said world growth had held up “remarkably well” despite a succession of shocks since 2020, with the IMF forecasting 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. But she cautioned that the latest hostilities had damaged oil and gas facilities and driven a 90% drop in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that normally carries about a fifth of global oil supply and Liquefied Natural Gas trade, including almost half of Asia’s oil imports.
Oil prices are up nearly 50% since December, with Asia and Europe facing steep gas price increases. As a rule of thumb, she said a persistent 10% oil price rise through most of the year could add 40 basis points to global headline inflation and shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points from global output. The IMF will detail the potential impact by country in its forthcoming World Economic Outlook.
Setting out three priorities, Georgieva urged governments to invest in strong institutions and policy frameworks, build and replenish financial buffers and remain agile. Independent central banks, credible fiscal rules and robust medium‑term fiscal frameworks, she said, underpin better outcomes for growth and inflation and allow countercyclical policy when shocks hit.
She highlighted the “twin transformations” of artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics, noting IMF estimates that AI could lift Asia’s medium‑term growth by up to 0.8 percentage points, with Japan poised to benefit by coupling AI adoption with workforce adaptability. She also encouraged deeper regional integration in Asia, where lowering non‑tariff barriers could raise gross domestic product by about 1.8% over time.
Georgieva praised Japan’s policy agility and longstanding support for the IMF’s surveillance, lending and capacity development, describing it as vital to safeguarding international financial stability. She closed by urging policymakers to use buffers wisely and seize opportunities even amid uncertainty.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
