However, Wandile Sihlobo, Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and Chief Economist at Agbiz, says SA’s food security remains stable, and consumers are unlikely to face immediate price shocks.

Speaking to Channel Africa on Friday, Sihlobo said the country’s strong harvests over recent seasons have provided a buffer against external shocks. “We do not foresee risks to our food security over the foreseeable future. We are solid on food supplies and we still expect food price inflation to moderate this year,” he said.

He acknowledged that fuel price increases may cause temporary spikes in food prices in April and May, but stressed that overall supplies of grains, fruit and vegetables remain ample.

SA does not currently face fertiliser shortages, but global prices have begun to rise due to fears of supply disruptions. “Fertiliser is a globally traded commodity,” Sihlobo explained. “Roughly one‑third of nitrogen fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Given the conflict, we are seeing upward pressure on prices globally.”

He said many SA farmers already secured their fertiliser ahead of winter crop planting beginning in late April, reducing immediate exposure to price hikes. For those who have not, profitability may be squeezed, though no major reductions in planting areas are expected.

Sihlobo stressed that higher fertiliser prices do not automatically translate into higher food prices for consumers. “Farmers are price‑takers. Regardless of their input costs, they cannot simply raise prices to compensate. Food prices are largely set by global and domestic supply conditions, not by farmers’ margins,” he said.

The greater risk would arise only if farmers reduced planting significantly, a scenario Sihlobo does not anticipate. He added that the timing of the Middle East disruption is “a blessing”, occurring outside the planting window for staple crops across Southern Africa. Planting for the 2027 harvest will only begin later this year.

For now, the main inflationary risk remains fuel costs, not fertiliser. “Agricultural activity will continue in a normal way,” Sihlobo said. “Farmers may face reduced profitability, but consumers are not expected to face near‑term pressure.”

–ChannelAfrica–