The IMF Selected Issues Paper reviews Morocco’s public investment drive for the 2024 to 2030 period, which amounts to nearly 12% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 terms. The programme focuses on strengthening transport connectivity, expanding tourism infrastructure and upgrading urban facilities, including major investments linked to preparations for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, which Morocco will co‑host.

Using the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models, the study estimates that the investment push could raise real GDP by around 2% by 2030. Longer‑term gains of about 3% are projected as higher‑quality public capital lifts productivity across the economy.

The IMF noted that infrastructure investment has already played a central role in Morocco’s development. Since 2005, improvements in areas such as ports and telecommunications have accounted for roughly one‑fifth of total productivity growth.

However, the IMF cautioned that the benefits of the new investment wave are not guaranteed. A significant share of spending will rely on imported machinery and equipment, which limits the short‑term boost to domestic demand. In addition, higher public borrowing during the construction phase could crowd out private investment.

Under the baseline scenario, public debt is projected to rise by 7–8 percentage points of GDP before gradually declining as growth strengthens and user fees and related revenues help service the debt. Investment efficiency was identified as the decisive factor. The IMF estimates that if project execution improves by 20%, long‑term GDP gains could increase to almost 4%, without adding to debt levels. By contrast, cost overruns of around 30% would significantly worsen debt dynamics without generating additional growth benefits.

The report said Morocco’s experience offers broader lessons for African policymakers. Large‑scale infrastructure programmes can accelerate growth, boost regional integration and support long‑term development, but only when accompanied by strong public investment management, transparent oversight of state‑owned enterprises and careful monitoring of fiscal risks.

“As Morocco’s case illustrates, the quality of public spending can matter as much as its scale,” the IMF said.