With 18 opposition candidates cleared to contest the election, questions have emerged over whether a crowded ballot could strengthen Tinubu’s prospects by splitting opposition support.
Speaking to Channel Africa on Wednesday, Advocacy Officer at the West Africa Democracy Solidarity Network, Austin Aigbe, said Nigerians are likely to judge the APC on its record since taking power in 2015 under former President Muhammadu Buhari. “For nearly 12 years with a new party who came on board in 2015, Nigerians will be holding the ruling party to account,” Aigbe said.
Aigbe argued that many of the issues that helped bring the APC to power remain unresolved. “Nearly 12 years after, the country is still battling with the same issues of security concern,” Aigbe said.
Aigbe pointed to continued insecurity, including killings and kidnappings, as well as economic hardship and corruption concerns as issues likely to feature prominently during the campaign.
While the Tinubu administration has defended economic reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies, Aigbe said many Nigerians have yet to experience the expected benefits. “The economy isn’t doing good, even though the current administration has argued that they are doing a lot to improve the system,” Aigbe said.
According to Aigbe, the official start of campaigning is largely symbolic because political activity has been underway for months. “Campaign has begun before now,” Aigbe said.
On whether the large number of opposition candidates could benefit Tinubu, Aigbe suggested the outcome may not be as straightforward as some observers expect. “Those numbers will divide the opposition vote; the same number will also divide his own vote,” Aigbe said.
Aigbe noted that voting patterns in Nigeria are often influenced by regional, ethnic, religious and party loyalties. With most candidates coming from southern Nigeria, including several from regions traditionally seen as part of Tinubu’s support base, opposition candidates could also erode support that might otherwise have gone to the incumbent. “There are about three or four from his own geopolitical zone, that’s the southwest,” Aigbe said.
Aigbe also recalled that a similarly crowded field in the 2015 election did not prevent an incumbent from losing power. “In the 2015 election, there were about 18 people on the ballot and the ruling party, the incumbent president, lost the election,” Aigbe said.
Rather than a single opposition challenger emerging, Aigbe expects the contest to develop into a three-way race between Tinubu and leading candidates from the north and south.
–ChannelAfrica–
