The report argues that shifting global trade patterns, energy transitions and Africa’s growing markets create a narrow but significant window for the region to accelerate growth through deeper regional and trilateral integration.
The study finds that North Africa’s economic links remain heavily skewed towards Europe, which accounts for about 63% of the region’s exports, while trade with sub-Saharan Africa stands at just under 4%. Participation in global value chains is limited and still dominated by raw materials and primary goods. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are also modest, representing less than 1% of global FDI, despite the region’s strategic location and relatively strong human capital base.
However, the IMF analysis shows that reducing trade barriers and improving logistics could unlock sizeable gains. Model estimates suggest that cutting tariffs and non-tariff barriers between North Africa, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa by around 20% could lift North Africa’s trade by more than 25% and raise GDP by about 2%. Similar reforms would also benefit sub-Saharan Africa through stronger supply chain participation and higher investment inflows.
Energy emerges as a central pillar of this potential integration. As Europe accelerates its clean energy transition and electricity demand rises, North Africa’s mix of hydrocarbons, solar and wind resources positions it as a potential energy corridor between continents. The report notes that expanded energy infrastructure could support European decarbonisation efforts while helping to address power shortages in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
The African Continental Free Trade Area is highlighted as a key mechanism for boosting intra-African trade, provided that infrastructure gaps, regulatory barriers and logistics constraints are addressed. The paper also points to Morocco’s automotive industry as an example of how targeted industrial policy, skills development and foreign investment can support value chain integration.
To realise these gains, the IMF calls for coordinated reforms across the region, including improved trade facilitation, better regulatory quality, investment-friendly policies and stronger regional cooperation. Without decisive action, the report warns, North Africa risks missing a strategic opportunity to anchor itself more firmly in Africa’s and Europe’s evolving economic landscape.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
