This is according to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook.
The report notes that established producers such as Algeria, Nigeria, Angola and Libya remain central to continental supply, but warns that these countries face rising pressure to secure fresh capital injections, modernise infrastructure and maintain ageing assets to prevent production declines.
It also highlights that access to financing will determine whether recent discoveries in Namibia, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Mozambique and Mauritania can be transformed into commercially viable projects capable of boosting Africa’s output over the next decade.
Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President at the African Energy Chamber, said the new outlook reflects a clear shift in global priorities toward energy security. He explained that more than 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity, and over 900 million do not have clean cooking facilities, making a reliable hydrocarbon supply essential for development.
Ayukegba pointed to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery as a major turning point for the continent. The facility, with a capacity to refine more than 600,000 barrels per day, has reduced Africa’s dependence on imported fuel and created new export opportunities. He added that Africa would need at least four more refineries of similar scale to meet daily demand.
Looking ahead, the report identifies Namibia’s Orange Basin as one of the most promising frontiers following significant discoveries by international operators. Côte d’Ivoire, Congo-Brazzaville and Senegal are also expected to expand production, particularly in natural gas.
Ayukegba acknowledged increasing international pressure to phase out fossil fuel investment, but stressed that hydrocarbons would remain critical in Africa’s energy mix through 2035 and beyond. Many governments rely on oil and gas revenues to fund hospitals, education and social programmes.
Funding remains the biggest obstacle. The report calls for faster permit approvals, clearer regulations and stronger regional cooperation to attract investors. Ayukegba said African countries must compete with established provinces such as the United States and the North Sea, where projects move from discovery to development far more quickly.
He urged development finance institutions and new vehicles such as the African Energy Bank to play a greater role in de-risking projects and mobilising African capital, warning that delays could see opportunities slip away.
–ChannelAfrica–
