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Rand set for second weekly loss as oil surge stokes inflation fears

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SA Rand weakened on Friday

The South African (SA) Rand weakened on Friday, heading for a second consecutive week of losses as surging energy prices fueled by conflict ​in the Middle East rattled global markets and heightened inflation ‌concerns.

The Rand traded at 16.94 against the Dollar, 0.9% weaker than Thursday’s close.

The currency has faced sustained pressure since the US, Israeli war on Iran started ​nearly two weeks ago. It fell over 3% last week and ​is poised to decline by around 2% this week. Rising ⁠oil prices pose a challenge for SA, a net energy ​importer.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that Tehran will keep ​the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage against the US and Israel, which has stoked concerns about global energy supply and risk assets.

Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel, despite ​the US trying to ease supply concerns by issuing a 30-day license ​for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea.

“Higher oil import costs ‌could ⁠narrow trade surpluses and place renewed pressure on the current account if elevated prices persist,” ETM Analytics said in a research note.

On Thursday, SA recorded its first current account surplus in more than two years in the ​final quarter of ​2025, helped by ⁠rising precious metal prices, but the data had little effect on the Rand.

“While this war continues and the ​stress in the oil market builds, one should expect emerging-market ​currencies ⁠such as the rand and its LATAM peers to underperform developed-market currencies, especially the US Dollar,” ETM Analytics said.

The greenback was last up 0.4% against a ⁠basket ​of currencies.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 ​index fell 1.2% in early trade.

SA’s benchmark 2035 government bond also weakened, as the ​yield rose 11 basis points to 8.825%.

–Reuters–