The agreement follows reports that Belgium had pushed for discussions on the deployment within EU institutions. Earlier this year, Rwanda warned that troops could be withdrawn if sustainable funding was not secured.
Independent Political Analyst and Strategic Risk Adviser Marisa Lourenço said Rwanda’s deployment has been the most effective response to the insurgency in northern Mozambique since violence escalated in Cabo Delgado.
According to Lourenço, previous attempts by Mozambique to contain the insurgency through its own military forces and private military contractors failed to achieve lasting results.
Lourenço said Rwandan forces have succeeded in retaking towns previously controlled by insurgents and have helped secure areas surrounding major liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the province.
Lourenço warned that Rwanda’s withdrawal could create a significant security vacuum, particularly around strategic energy infrastructure.
“Without the Rwandans there, what would actually happen to some of these key sites in Cabo Delgado linked to the massive LNG projects?” Lourenço said.
Despite years of training and capacity-building efforts, Lourenço argued that the Mozambican military still lacks the operational effectiveness required to contain the insurgency independently.
Lourenço said Mozambique has become heavily dependent on Rwanda’s presence and has struggled to address long-standing challenges within its security forces, including resource constraints, low morale and limited local knowledge among deployed personnel.
Lourenço noted that while the EU will not continue direct support for the Rwandan mission, assistance to Mozambique’s military is expected to continue until the end of the year.
The new funding arrangement comes amid growing tensions between Rwanda and some Western partners over allegations of Kigali’s involvement in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Lourenço said Rwanda’s relationship with Western governments has deteriorated in recent years, contributing to divisions within the EU over continued support for the Cabo Delgado mission.
While Mozambique may seek alternative security partnerships, Lourenço said finding another country willing to deploy troops on the ground at the same scale as Rwanda would be difficult.
Lourenço added that the situation in Cabo Delgado differs significantly from the conflict in eastern DRC, arguing that Rwanda’s presence in Mozambique is focused on maintaining influence in Southern Africa rather than territorial ambitions.
Lourenço said the agreement highlights both Rwanda’s growing regional influence and Mozambique’s continued reliance on external security support to contain the insurgency.
–ChannelAfrica–
