This follows the completion of the country’s 2025 Article IV consultation and the sixth review of its Policy Coordination Instrument.
In a statement released on Thursday, the IMF said Rwanda recorded real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.2% in 2024 and in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in services, construction and coffee exports. Inflation remained within the National Bank of Rwanda’s 2–8% target band, despite upward pressure linked to new tax measures.
However, the Fund noted that the current account deficit widened in the first half of the year as imports of consumer and capital goods increased. International reserves remained adequate at 4.8 months of import cover as of June 2025.
The IMF said Rwanda should now focus on sustaining macroeconomic stability and rebuilding fiscal buffers. It recommended continued fiscal consolidation supported by stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, improved spending efficiency and better oversight of state-owned enterprises. The Fund also emphasised the importance of a more flexible exchange rate and a proactive, data-driven monetary policy to help the country absorb external shocks.
According to the IMF, programme performance has been strong, with all quantitative targets met and almost all reform commitments delivered under the 2022–25 Policy Co-ordination Instrument (PCI). The programme has supported Rwanda’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and helped the country navigate subsequent shocks, including the 2023 floods and the 2024 Marburg disease outbreak.
Even so, the Fund warned that pressure on Rwanda’s external position remains significant. Major developments such as the construction of the New Kigali International Airport and the expansion of RwandAir, combined with rising foreign-financed capital spending, are expected to push public debt close to 80% of GDP by 2027.
The IMF urged the authorities to identify new revenue measures under the next phase of the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy, prioritise capital spending, and strengthen monitoring of fiscal risks. It also highlighted the need for close financial sector supervision, given strong credit growth and potential vulnerabilities in asset quality.
The Fund welcomed efforts to update the National Bank of Rwanda Act, describing improvements to the mandate and transparency as positive. However, it warned that further revisions are needed to strengthen the Bank’s personal and institutional autonomy.
Looking ahead, the IMF said Rwanda must continue structural reforms to reduce external imbalances, expand exports, and support private sector development. Priorities include reducing barriers to entry, improving regional trade integration, lowering transport costs and leveraging high-growth sectors such as tourism and information and communications technology. The Fund also underscored the importance of climate resilience measures and expanding women’s access to skills training.
Staff recommended completing the sixth and final review of the PCI and initiating a Post Financing Assessment due to Rwanda’s outstanding credit to the IMF. The next Article IV consultation is expected to take place on a 12-month cycle.
–IMF/ChannelAfrica–
