The amendments come as Somalia continues to confront decades of fragility, insecurity and conflict. Although African Union (AU) forces have weakened Al‑Shabaab, the militant group still controls parts of rural Somalia and carries out regular attacks, complicating efforts to consolidate political governance.
Speaking to Channel Africa on Friday, Advocate Sipho Mantula of the Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs said the timing of the amendments is “not correct” and risks deepening mistrust in the electoral process.
“His term of office was supposed to expire this year, and now they are pushing it by another year. The constitution was amended with immediate effect by a parliamentary vote, and opposition parties see this as political manipulation,” he said.
Mantula noted that similar delays have occurred elsewhere in the region, including South Sudan. However, Somalia’s decision has drawn particular scrutiny because it affects other federal states such as Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland, all of which had aligned their election calendars with 2027.
He added that opposition lawmakers, having lost the parliamentary vote, are now applying “popular pressure” and appealing for international scrutiny, including from the AU.
“Delaying elections undermines development, threatens peace and fuels insecurity. This is a challenge across the continent, where electoral calendars are altered through parliamentary manoeuvres,” Mantula said.
Asked whether Somalia could face renewed instability, Mantula said the danger cannot be ruled out, given ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, Eritrea and across the wider Horn of Africa. He stressed that Somalia’s political actors must pursue national dialogue and involve community elders, noting that Somali democracy follows dynamics distinct from Western models.
He warned that disputes over the interpretation and implementation of the amendments could trigger legal challenges in the Constitutional Court or be escalated to the AU or United Nations Security Council.
“The amendments are themselves a conflict trigger,” Mantula said. “The AU must be proactive. Africa cannot afford to ignore conflicts in the Horn of Africa, especially in an era of drone warfare and rapidly shifting security dynamics.”
–ChannelAfrica–
