It is the third ‌time this month, and the fourth in total, that large, well-timed directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major announcements on the Iran war. One combined wager in ​March was worth $500 million, while April’s bets have together totalled some $2.1 billion.

Between 21h54 ​and 21h56 CAT on Tuesday, 4 260 lots of selling hit the oil ⁠market, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, according ​to London Stock Exchange Group data. Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely at 22h10 CAT.

The Brent ​market settles at 20h30 CAT, meaning these trades took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually extremely limited.

The trades did not have much impact on the price, which ​edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After Trump’s announcement, Brent ​crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.2 ‌a ⁠barrel at 14h00 CAT on Wednesday.

On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million went through just ​hours before Trump’s announcement ​of a two-week ceasefire.

On ⁠April 17, some 20 minutes prior to the Iranian Foreign Minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would ​be open to commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on ​a falling ⁠oil price.

The US is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts ⁠by ​Trump related to the war in Iran, a person ​familiar with the matter said on April 15.

A Spokesperson for the Intercontinental Exchange declined to ​comment.

–Reuters–