Industry projections indicate that systemic rail infrastructure challenges, combined with global market pressures, continue to limit export capacity.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Mining Analyst at Modern Corporate Solutions, Peter Major, told Channel Africa on Wednesday that SA\u2019s coal market is shaped by a complex web of domestic and international factors.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cAnybody who really understands the coal export market in SA knows that there are so many moving parts. You can have 90% of them running correctly, but that one part not running correctly can have big effects,\u201d Major explained.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
He noted that last year\u2019s export volumes were already historically low, and 2025 is likely to mirror that performance. Falling international coal prices, down more than 25% since last year, and a stronger rand have squeezed miners\u2019 margins.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of coal miners who were making money at $100 coal can\u2019t make money at $80 coal. And maybe they could make money when the rand was 19.5 to 1, but at 17 to 1, they\u2019re losing money,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Major highlighted weakening demand from key markets. China, which can rapidly increase or cut imports, is currently prioritising domestic coal production to conserve foreign currency. India, which typically absorbs 70% to 80% of SA\u2019s export coal, has also reduced its intake due to early monsoons disrupting logistics and reducing immediate demand.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cWith such heavy dependence on India, any reduction in their demand leaves us with excess coal and limited alternatives. We used to sell a lot more to Europe, but now we sell hardly anything,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
On the logistical side, persistent disruptions on Transnet\u2019s rail corridors continue to prevent miners from maximising exports. Although Transnet has reported progress in reducing vandalism and theft on some routes, new bottlenecks have emerged elsewhere.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019ve had problems in Limpopo, where many of our major mines are located,\u201d Major noted. \u201cYou really need strong infrastructure to move coal from the Waterberg all the way to Richards Bay.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
He argued that while Transnet has made some gains, they remain inconsistent and insufficient to raise export volumes. Allowing private sector participation in key rail corridors, he suggested, could significantly improve efficiency.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen the producers of the coal are the same people who sell the coal overseas, giving them more control over logistics makes for a more efficient enterprise. If privatising parts of Transnet, especially the Saldanha and Richards Bay lines, helps get exports back to 75 or 80 million tons instead of 55 million tons, it will benefit the whole country,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Major stressed that SA must benchmark its logistics system against global standards to remain competitive. \u201cWe need to take care of ourselves. The sooner we make the necessary changes, the better.\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
–ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":13191,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"news-type":[44],"class_list":["post-20414","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"South Africa\u2019s (SA) coal export outlook for 2025 is expected to remain close to, or slightly below, last year\u2019s levels, despite incremental operational improvements at Transnet. ","published_date":null,"news_description":"South Africa\u2019s (SA) coal export outlook for 2025 is expected to remain close to, or slightly below, last year\u2019s levels, despite incremental operational improvements at Transnet. ","form_embed":"","author":"","image_caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/20414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/20414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24463,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/20414\/revisions\/24463"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-type?post=20414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}