{"id":23267,"date":"2026-02-03T16:45:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T14:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jhb-webdevelopers\/channelafrica\/news\/ethiopias-economic-growth-forecast-raised-to-10-2-for-2025-26-fiscal-year\/"},"modified":"2026-02-27T16:34:06","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T14:34:06","slug":"ethiopias-economic-growth-forecast-raised-to-10-2-for-2025-26-fiscal-year","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/news\/ethiopias-economic-growth-forecast-raised-to-10-2-for-2025-26-fiscal-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia\u2019s economic growth forecast raised to 10.2% for 2025\/26 fiscal year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">is a<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> figure <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">that<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> surpasses the Finance M<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">inistry\u2019s<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> earlier forecast of 8.9% issued in June 2025.<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Abiy <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">said<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the improved outlook is based on economic performance recorded over the past six months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Speaking to Channel Africa on Tuesday, Innocent Semosa, Dr Costantinos Berhutesfa, former United Nations (UN) Senior Economic Policy Advisor, Chairperson of the African Union Anti\u2011Corruption Board, and Professor of Public Policy and Sustainable Institutional Reforms, said Ethiopia\u2019s economic trajectory remains complex<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, but notable<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> gains are emerging despite persistent challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cWell, the Ethiopian economy has a lot of challenges,\u201d he said. \u201cWe have internal conflict, illicit financial flows and illicit trade. But despite that, the country has been showing remarkable progress.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He noted that while the IMF and other institutions have issued lower projections, recent surges in sectors such as tourism, natural gas and mining have bolstered government confidence in achieving <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">double\u2011digit<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Costantinos<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> highlighted a combination of industries <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">underpinning<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the government\u2019s optimistic forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He pointed to:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Mechanised agriculture, which is expanding productivity<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Gold and mineral mining, which continues to generate foreign\u2011exchange earnings<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New natural gas investments, particularly in Ethiopia\u2019s Somali region<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Commodity exports, which he said have nearly doubled over <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">a six\u2011month period<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He added that Ethiopia\u2019s growing industrial capacity, including 20 industrial parks <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">supporting value\u2011added<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> exports, as well as the introduction of capital markets and the return of foreign banks for the first time in half a century, have strengthened the economic outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cAll this gives the government some kind of inkling that the economy will grow at a double\u2011digit rate,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Asked about the importance of mega projects in sustaining growth, Dr Costantinos said large\u2011scale infrastructure remains central to Ethiopia\u2019s development model.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He cited:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), whose fourth turbine has been completed, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">pushing<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> capacity beyond <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">5 000<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">MW<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Koysha Dam, producing over <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2 000<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> MW<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Recent expansions in wind energy<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A joint Dangote\u2013Ethiopian Investment Holding fertiliser plant, expected <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">to significantly reduce costly fertiliser imports<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Planned natural gas production, which could curb dependence on liquefied natural gas imports<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A planned <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">100 000\u2011hectare<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> coffee development zone, involving smallholders, mechanised farmers and investors<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cThese are transformative projects,\u201d he said, although he warned that ongoing insecurity in regions such as Oromia and Amhara threatens productivity and stability.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Costantinos<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> emphasised that Ethiopia\u2019s long-term growth prospects rely on addressing several systemic weaknesses.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">1. Peace and security:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cThe first thing is peace,\u201d he said. National dialogue efforts are underway, but he noted that conflict\u2011affected regions account for more than half of the population.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2. Tackling illicit financial flows: <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A recent Global Financial Integrity report shows Ethiopia has lost more than $36 billion to illicit outflows over the past decade, a trend he described as \u201cequivalent to a national debt.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">3. Addressing corruption:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Government reports have revealed billions of birr in unaccounted public funds each year. \u201cThe government must look seriously at corruption,\u201d he stressed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">4. Supporting domestic industries under <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">African<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA):<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He warned that imported goods, particularly from large economies such as China, are often far cheaper than local products, causing factory closures and undermining industrialisation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, he <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">said<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the African Continental Free Trade Area <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">offers<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> a crucial opportunity for African manufacturers to access <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">wider<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Despite the challenges, Costantinos expressed confidence that Ethiopia can achieve sustained high growth if reforms continue.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u201cThe government can do this, and I believe it is committed,\u201d he said. \u201cIts digital transformation agenda is certainly aligned with achieving that growth.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">&#8211;ChannelAfrica&#8211;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":20416,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"news-type":[44],"class_list":["post-23267","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"Ethiopia\u2019s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has projected that the country\u2019s economy will expand by 10.2% in the 2025\/26 fiscal year. ","published_date":null,"news_description":"Ethiopia\u2019s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has projected that the country\u2019s economy will expand by 10.2% in the 2025\/26 fiscal year. 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