Among the most consequential developments is the 20 February ruling by the United States (US) Supreme Court, which declared former President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping global tariffs unlawful.<\/p>\n
Speaking to Channel Africa on Wednesday, Sanisha Packirisamy, Group Economist at Momentum Investments, said the ruling \u201cwas quite important for many nations\u201d, noting that the previous universal tariff rate applied under the Trump administration exceeded legal limits.<\/p>\n
In its place, Washington has activated Section 122 of the Trade Act, allowing temporary across\u2011the\u2011board tariffs initially set at 10% and now at 15% for a 150\u2011day period.<\/p>\n
Packirisamy explained that once Section 122 expires in mid\u2011July, the US administration will need alternative tariff instruments to avoid legal gaps. Countries that previously faced tariffs above 15%, such as China, now benefit marginally from lower effective duties. Others, including the United Kingdom, which had negotiated more favourable bilateral terms, may find themselves worse off under the temporary regime.<\/p>\n
Emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey are responding differently to the tariff adjustments, depending on their trade structures and exposure. Packirisamy said many Asian economies have benefited from \u201ctransshipments\u201d, where goods originating in China enter the US via third countries to avoid higher tariffs.<\/p>\n
\u201cVietnam, Bangladesh and Kazakhstan have all benefited from this redirection of trade,\u201d she said, adding that enforcement remains difficult due to administrative burdens.<\/p>\n
She noted that broader supply\u2011chain realignment, including friendshoring and nearshoring initiatives designed to reduce US reliance on China, has created new trade opportunities for countries like Indonesia and Vietnam despite some targeted US tariffs.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, Packirisamy warned that the expiry of Section 122 will push Washington toward alternative mechanisms such as Section 232 (national security tariffs), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), Section 338 (foreign discrimination) and Section 201 (temporary safeguards). \u201cWe will see creativity under the US administration now that the ruling has gone against Trump,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
The report also flags rising geopolitical risks, particularly linked to the Iranian conflict, which threatens oil markets and global shipping routes. Packirisamy said emerging markets that rely heavily on imported oil face heightened risks to inflation, currencies and fiscal balances.<\/p>\n
\u201cEmerging markets were on healthier footing, but rising oil prices and shipping costs could erode stability,\u201d she warned.<\/p>\n
–ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
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