Analysts warn the spike could fuel inflation worldwide and jeopardise fragile economic recoveries, particularly in Europe and Asia, where energy\u2011intensive industries remain under strain.<\/p>\n
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According to Allianz Trade\u2019s new report, Conflict in the Middle East: Implications for Markets and Macro, the sharp rise in prices is being driven largely by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 30% of seaborne hydrocarbons travel. Traffic through the narrow channel has fallen to roughly 30% of normal levels, significantly constraining global supply.’<\/p>\n
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Speaking to Channel Africa on Monday, Allianz Trade Country Manager for South Africa (SA) Luke Morawitz said the current price sits between the firm\u2019s baseline scenario and its prolonged conflict scenario. \u201cOur baseline forecasts a temporary rise toward $85, before normalising to around $70 as alternative supplies emerge,\u201d he said. \u201cBut with the latest escalation, we are now closer to our prolonged conflict path, where Brent crude could remain near $100 before easing later in the year.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Morawitz warned that a sustained spike would have immediate inflationary effects. Higher fuel prices raise freight costs by up to 50%, pushing up the cost of imported goods. SA already faces significant pressure, with an under\u2011recovery of between $0.12 and $0.15 per litre likely to trigger further fuel\u2011price hikes. \u201cReaching the Reserve Bank\u2019s new 3% inflation target will be extremely difficult if elevated oil prices persist,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
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Major economies will also feel the impact. Allianz forecasts that US growth could fall from 2.5 to 2.3% under a prolonged conflict scenario, limiting the Federal Reserve\u2019s ability to cut interest rates. Europe and parts of Asia, which are more dependent on imported energy, face greater downside risks.<\/p>\n
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Oil\u2011producing African economies such as Nigeria may benefit from higher prices if they can redirect supply to markets seeking alternatives to disrupted Gulf exports.<\/p>\n
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If the conflict expands to include attacks on refining infrastructure, such as recent drone activity targeting Saudi Aramco, Morawitz said prices could reach $130 per barrel. \u201cBut as new producers come online and stock flows rebalance, we expect a return toward $80 by year\u2011end,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
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–ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":28177,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"news-type":[44],"class_list":["post-28176","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"Global oil prices have surged beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as the rapidly escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States (US) and Israel disrupts key energy routes and intensifies uncertainty in global markets. ","published_date":"","news_description":"Global oil prices have surged beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 as the rapidly escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States (US) and Israel disrupts key energy routes and intensifies uncertainty in global markets. ","form_embed":"","author":"","image_caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/28176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/28176\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28178,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/28176\/revisions\/28178"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-type?post=28176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}