<\/p>\n
In its April 2026 report, the IMF says the conflict has emerged as a powerful counterforce to recent tailwinds that had supported global growth, including strong technology\u2011related investment, accommodative financial conditions, a weaker US Dollar and policy support. The war is now disrupting commodity markets, pushing up inflation expectations and tightening financial conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Given the uncertainty surrounding the conflict, the IMF has replaced its traditional baseline forecast with a \u201creference forecast\u201d, assuming the war remains limited in duration, intensity and geographic scope, with disruptions easing by mid\u20112026. Under this scenario, global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, down from about 3.4% in 2024\u201325 and below the pre\u2011pandemic average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 before easing to 3.7% in 2027, reflecting upward pressure from energy and commodity prices. The IMF notes that without the Middle East conflict, growth forecasts for 2026 would likely have been revised upwards.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The impact, however, is uneven. While advanced economies are broadly unchanged from earlier projections, growth in emerging market and developing economies has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points for 2026. Commodity\u2011importing countries with existing vulnerabilities are expected to be hit hardest.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF warns that risks are firmly tilted to the downside. In an adverse scenario where energy prices remain elevated, global growth could slow to 2.5% in 2026, with inflation rising to 5.4%. In a more severe case involving major damage to energy infrastructure, growth could fall to around 2%, while inflation would exceed 6% by 2027.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Beyond the conflict, the Fund highlights dangers from rising public debt, geopolitical fragmentation, trade disputes and financial market volatility, including a potential correction in artificial intelligence\u2011related investments.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF calls on governments to preserve price and financial stability, safeguard fiscal sustainability and accelerate structural reforms. It urges central banks to remain vigilant, communicate clearly and protect their independence, while fiscal support should be targeted, temporary and focused on protecting the most vulnerable.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
In a world increasingly shaped by conflict and uncertainty, the IMF says coordinated global action and resilient domestic policies are essential to prevent lasting economic damage.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
–IMF\/ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":32255,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"news-type":[78,44],"class_list":["post-32254","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-featured","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"The global economy is once again at risk of being knocked off course, this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund\u2019s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).","published_date":"","news_description":"The global economy is once again at risk of being knocked off course, this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund\u2019s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).","form_embed":"","author":"","image_caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/32254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/32254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32257,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/32254\/revisions\/32257"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-type?post=32254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}