<\/p>\n
The IMF assessment comes as Ghana continues strengthening the financial system following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme, which placed considerable pressure on banks and other financial institutions.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Post-programme improvements in capitalisation, profitability and liquidity have increased the banking system\u2019s ability to absorb financial shocks. However, the recovery remains uneven across institutions.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Gold accounts for more than half of Ghana\u2019s export receipts, close to 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) and about 21% of direct tax revenue. A sharp price decline could therefore reduce foreign exchange earnings and government revenue while weakening the cedi, increasing inflation and raising sovereign risk.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF modelled two persistent shocks, involving gold price declines of 30% and 45%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Under the 30% scenario, the cedi could depreciate by as much as 23.4%, while inflation could rise by up to 1.57 percentage points above the baseline. The shock could also reduce real GDP growth by between 0.73 and 1.55 percentage points.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ghana\u2019s banking system entered the exercise from a stronger position, with the system-wide capital adequacy ratio reaching about 22% in March 2026, above the 13% regulatory minimum.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Under the broader stress-testing framework, the aggregate capital ratio remained above the regulatory threshold, declining from 17.7% in the baseline to 17.2% under the moderate scenario. The IMF cautioned that system-wide resilience masks vulnerabilities among weaker domestic institutions.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Banks have limited direct exposure to the mining and quarrying industry. Loans to the sector accounted for 5.3% of total loans at the end of 2025, while the sector\u2019s non-performing loan ratio stood at 10.4%, below the 18.1% industry average.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The larger risk would come through weaker growth, currency depreciation, inflation, sovereign exposure and rising bad loans across the economy.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The Bank of Ghana faces greater vulnerability because of gold holdings in the reserve portfolio. Under the most severe scenario, central bank equity could decline to 9% below GDP if gold accounts for 50% of reserves.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF recommended maintaining strong bank capital buffers, resolving remaining weak institutions and incorporating commodity-price risks into central bank recapitalisation planning.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
–IMF\/ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n
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