<\/p>\n
An IMF technical assistance mission assessed Stats SA’s treatment of quarterly gross domestic product, manufacturing, mining, retail trade, employment and other short-term indicators from May 11 to May 22, 2026.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The mission, conducted through African Regional Technical Assistance Centres South at Stats SA\u2019s request, found that consistency between short-term indicators and quarterly national accounts had improved since previous assessments. \u201cThere is now a culture of comparing growth rates between the short-term and the quarterly national accounts estimates,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
However, the IMF found that seasonal adjustment parameters previously reviewed by methodology specialists had not been updated across all relevant production areas. \u201cThis will have had impacts on the quality of the published seasonally adjusted estimates,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Stats SA was advised to implement updated parameters as part of the rebased national accounts by August 31, while managing revisions to previously published estimates.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Seasonal adjustment removes predictable calendar effects and recurring fluctuations, allowing analysts and policymakers to identify underlying economic trends more clearly.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF said testing for residual seasonality, where seasonal patterns remain after adjustment, should become a routine quality check before publication.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Tests conducted during the mission found no statistically significant residual seasonality in published aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) figures. However, results for constant-price GDP were closer to indicating possible residual patterns, requiring continued monitoring. \u201cThere should be no residual seasonality in published aggregate time series,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF also recommended a formal assessment of JDemetra+, a free statistical tool widely used internationally and by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Stats SA methodologists developed a prototype automated review application using R-Shiny and the rJDemetra+ toolkit during the mission.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cThis will allow additional time to focus on high-priority time series which impact published short-term and national accounts aggregate outputs,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Labour statistics also require greater cooperation between Stats SA and the SA Reserver Bank. Official seasonally adjusted employment indicators could help identify turning points and support monetary policy decisions.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF recommended updated internal guidelines, transparent revision policies, further training and detailed seasonal-adjustment reviews every two to three years.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cA published revision policy helps manage user expectations, enhances confidence in the statistical system and supports the interpretation of movements in key macroeconomic aggregates,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
–IMF\/ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":44338,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"news-type":[44],"class_list":["post-45171","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) should strengthen seasonal adjustment methods, automation and quality controls to improve the reliability of the country\u2019s economic statistics, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.","published_date":"","news_description":"Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) should strengthen seasonal adjustment methods, automation and quality controls to improve the reliability of the country\u2019s economic statistics, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.","form_embed":"","author":"","image_caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/45171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/45171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45172,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/45171\/revisions\/45172"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-type?post=45171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}