{"id":48699,"date":"2026-10-21T21:06:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T19:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/?post_type=news&#038;p=48699"},"modified":"2026-10-21T21:06:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T19:06:57","slug":"sa-cuts-growth-forecast-based-on-middle-east-conflict-higher-oil-prices-expensive-borrowing-el-nino-related-risks","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/news\/sa-cuts-growth-forecast-based-on-middle-east-conflict-higher-oil-prices-expensive-borrowing-el-nino-related-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"SA cuts growth forecast based on Middle East conflict, higher oil prices, expensive borrowing, El Ni\u00f1o-related risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said growth was expected to recover to 1.6% in 2027 and 2% by 2029. The February Budget had forecast 1.6% growth for 2026.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Middle East conflict, higher oil prices, expensive borrowing and El Ni\u00f1o-related risks have weakened the outlook.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Government will reduce the diesel levy by about $0.18 a litre and the petrol levy by $0.09 a litre from November 4 to December 1.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Relief will continue at lower levels until January 5, with reductions of about $0.09 a litre for diesel and $0.06 for petrol.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The measure will provide approximately $601 million in support through foregone revenue.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Debt stabilised at 78.4% of gross domestic product in 2025\/26 and is expected to decline. The budget deficit is projected at 3.9% of gross domestic product in 2026\/27, improving to 2.5% by 2030.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Gross tax revenue was revised upwards by approximately $1.03 billion because of stronger corporate tax, dividends tax and value-added tax collections.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Revenue is projected to rise from about $128.6 billion in 2026\/27 to $152.1 billion in 2029\/30.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Government will increase expenditure by approximately $2.73 billion during the current financial year.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Allocations include about $373 million for disaster relief, $49 million for military deployments supporting police operations and $31 million for three commissions of inquiry.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Around $228 million will fund more than 3 500 social workers responding to gender-based violence, while $11 million will strengthen forensic and investigative capacity.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Government identified further savings of about $2.29 billion over the medium term by reducing duplication, social-grant fraud and inefficient programmes.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Infrastructure remains central to the economic strategy. Projects supported by the Infrastructure Finance and Implementation Support Agency have a potential value exceeding $13 billion.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fiscal support approved through the Budget Facility for Infrastructure exceeds $6 billion, while the infrastructure bond has raised more than $841 million. \u201cWe have stabilised our public finances,\u201d Godongwana said.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOver the next three years, our task is to turn this stability into faster growth and more jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;ChannelAfrica&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":22816,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"news-type":[44],"class_list":["post-48699","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"South Africa (SA) has lowered the 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.2% while announcing temporary fuel-levy relief and increased infrastructure investment.\r\n","published_date":"","news_description":"South Africa (SA) has lowered the 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.2% while announcing temporary fuel-levy relief and increased infrastructure investment.","form_embed":"","author":"","image_caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/48699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/48699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48701,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/48699\/revisions\/48701"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-type?post=48699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}