<\/p>\n
The Macroeconomic Effects of Forced Displacement in Sub-Saharan Africa study examined cross-country data alongside evidence from Burkina Faso, South Sudan and Uganda.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The number of forcibly displaced people in the region increased from 8.7 million in 2010 to 40.9 million in 2025, accounting for about 35% of the global total.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Around 30 million were internally displaced, nearly three times the number of refugees. Uganda hosted almost 2 million refugees, making it the region\u2019s largest host country.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The study found no statistically significant effect from large refugee inflows on host-country gross domestic product, consumer prices, current-account balances or primary fiscal balances over five years.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Government expenditure nevertheless increased by about 1 percentage point of gross domestic product initially and peaked at 2.5 percentage points after two years.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Revenue increased alongside expenditure, driven mainly by taxes linked to refugee-related consumption and humanitarian activity. Tax revenue was almost 2 percentage points of gross domestic product higher after five years.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The findings differed when refugees and internally displaced people were assessed together. Countries with displaced populations exceeding 5% of the national population recorded significantly weaker economic output.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
However, researchers cautioned that the effect could not be separated fully from the conflict causing displacement.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Country-level findings were mixed. Internal displacement reduced employment opportunities in Burkina Faso, particularly in urban areas, while refugee inflows were associated with increased employment among Ugandan host communities.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ugandan households nevertheless recorded lower consumption as growing populations placed pressure on housing, transport, healthcare and other services.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Food-price effects also varied by product. Imported and processed foods generally became more expensive, while locally produced cereals remained stable or declined.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
In South Sudan, maize meal prices increased by 68% and wheat flour by 32% after 12 months, while white millet declined by 19%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The IMF researchers said displaced people\u2019s participation in agriculture could strengthen local food supplies.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Policies providing access to land, agricultural inputs, employment and extension services could improve displaced people\u2019s livelihoods while benefiting host communities.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
–IMF\/ChannelAfrica–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":43180,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"news-type":[78,44],"class_list":["post-48966","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","news-type-featured","news-type-finance","entry"],"acf":{"short_description":"Large refugee inflows generally do not significantly affect economic growth, inflation or external balances in sub-Saharan African host countries, new International Monetary Fund (IMF) research finds.","published_date":"","news_description":"Large refugee inflows generally do not significantly affect economic growth, inflation or external balances in sub-Saharan African host countries, new International Monetary Fund (IMF) research finds.","form_embed":"","author":"","image_caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/48966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/48966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48968,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/48966\/revisions\/48968"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.channelafrica.co.za\/channelafrica\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-type?post=48966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}